Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.911040 24.936366 27.125172 29.677853 32.587640 35.818440 39.701090
2025-12-07 19.663386 22.421503 25.612457 29.622104 34.591178 40.636838 48.692677
2025-12-14 17.366806 20.506115 24.332215 29.433590 36.209577 45.136873 58.220802
2025-12-21 16.174638 19.681778 24.155638 30.449425 39.371896 52.082602 72.644871
2025-12-28 14.781520 18.391971 23.158031 30.146174 40.580616 56.439497 84.403495
2026-01-04 13.750251 17.441786 22.462941 30.102581 42.066665 61.404920 98.564528
2026-01-11 13.002987 16.786377 22.076283 30.409569 44.073503 67.556689 116.926438
2026-01-18 12.219500 15.999603 21.404469 30.166978 45.103707 72.184980 133.996740
2026-01-25 11.562253 15.333137 20.835390 29.995116 46.189907 77.111954 153.814244
2026-02-01 11.019125 14.787083 20.390610 29.956618 47.479100 82.706385 178.012431
2026-02-08 10.508539 14.249772 19.908061 29.788207 48.481259 87.925677 204.155739
2026-02-15 10.041814 13.745616 19.433544 29.573577 49.346782 93.050001 233.348274
2026-02-22 9.595112 13.254816 18.959571 29.340231 50.206430 98.580813 268.942404
2026-03-01 9.225008 12.861661 18.616990 29.312286 51.502469 105.645156 317.346300
2026-03-08 8.859496 12.453586 18.218910 29.137952 52.459378 112.167269 371.252111
2026-03-15 8.728529 12.410728 18.430681 30.144242 56.239086 128.043465 496.583475
2026-03-22 8.392035 12.013768 18.002511 29.847451 56.928913 134.944513 584.268541
2026-03-29 8.121574 11.710364 17.716494 29.805383 58.234083 144.419374 713.827703
2026-04-05 7.922435 11.514014 17.605486 30.108440 60.467695 158.174139 926.930832
2026-04-12 7.659019 11.195890 17.253679 29.869430 61.250731 167.034245 1131.692764
2026-04-19 7.423020 10.912883 16.948232 29.700049 62.199866 177.118879 1413.756099
2026-04-26 7.219770 10.676233 16.713582 29.662120 63.516891 189.565574 1840.613281
2026-05-03 7.012515 10.423198 16.433181 29.496077 64.445626 200.938426 2389.269356